Wally with a Brolly

(Having been quite busy lately these season previews have taken a while to go through. And yes I understand that these aren't really season previews anymore, what with the Prem having already played 3 games. But, with the transfer deadline now gone, it is easier to get a clearer picture. So I'll try and finish those. Next up is Everton).

I remember watching a film called Groundhog Day when I was a kid. It starred Bill Murray, Andie McDowell and other 90s actors. The storyline followed a cynical local journalist (Bill Murray) who heads to Punxsutawney to cover the Groundhog Day, when the local groundhog comes out of his home and, according to how he reacts, locals can predict the weather. And no, this is not a legend, this kind of stunt genuinely happens every year. You gotta love America.

Phil the groundhog is worried. Americans are crazy. And yes, the groundhog is always called Phil.

Anyways, Bill Murray is a disillusioned jerk to start with, hated by his crew and everyone else who surrounds him. But the twist is that he wakes up after the beaver incident, and every day is the same day. So he tries different things knowing he can predict what's going to happen again. Sort of like a full feature of Craig Daaaviiiidd's '7 days' video. Ergo the term 'Groundhog Day' (and the title of course). Now back to the football.

Could this look any more like a 90s film poster?

Every year must feel like Groundhog Day for David Moyes: no money is ever available and Everton tend to lose their best players. The worst thing for Moyes/Bill Murray is that there is no Andie McDowell to target. Yes I just compared the Premier League to Andie McDowell (stupid debate: which one would you rather have?). But, in all seriousness, Moyes's drive is admirable considering the only possibility for Everton is to be considered the 'Best of the Rest' and finish 5th or 6th. And that's in a particularly good year.

It is easy to marvel at his accomplishments whilst at Everton. Since taking over from Walter Smith (a dour manager if ever there was one, sort of late 90s Alex McLeish), Moyes has not only brought unprecedented results to the club but also a certain playing identity. Sure, Everton might not be the best looking team in terms of the way they play, but they mix up the long ball game with intricate passing. In short, Moyes has found the right combination over the years between the muscle of Fellaini and Distin, the nastiness of Gravesen and Carsley, and the guile of Osman and Pienaar. It's an approach which has worked superbly, and makes you wonder what he would have achieved had he been given more money to spend. His signings of Beattie and Johnson for quite a lot of money didn't turn out to be amazing, but his capture of Fellaini has been inspiring. And no manager can always get it right. Just ask Sir Alex Ferguson what he thinks of Djemba-Djemba, Kleberson and Bebe and you'll see that even the best can get it wrong sometimes.

Moyes: he's smiling because he knows he's awesome.

And contrast Everton's past seasons with their next-door neighbours. Whilst Liverpool have arguably had more (limited) success, they have also spent crazy money on players like Aquilani, Riera, Johnson, Torres, Henderson and Downing, and the majority of them have been busts. Moyes, on the other hand, has developed players like Osman and Hibbert whilst adding Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Howard, Jelavic and Pienaar for a pittance.

So where do Everton go from here?

Well, most importantly, they've got to be satisfied with Moyesy's loyalty and the lack of offers for him. To think that Tottenham got rid of Redknapp only to bring it AVB when Moyes would have been an ideal candidate is staggering. I mean, Moyes is a proven manager in the Prem (something which AVB is not) and talks a lot of sense (something which AVB clearly does not), AND he can manage a team on a (relative) budget. So kudos Daniel Levy for making as much sense as your new manager.

Everton can also be pleased that in Moyes, they have a manager who breeds loyalty amongst his own players. Apart from an overrated Jack Rodwell doing what is commonly known as 'a Wright-Phillips' (leaving a solid club to go nowhere), which will also be known in the future as 'doing a Sinclair' (no, not in that sense. Notice the 'a' between 'doing' and 'Sinclair'), no major players have left Goodison Park. More importantly, several players have come in for a fraction of the price paid by Man City for Rodwell, adding competition and flair throughout the team.

Jack Rodwell: not necessarily needed but nice to have. Man City's ipad.

So all in all, a lovely, comfortable summer. As Gary Neville tweeted (god I hate myself for even typing these words. Anything which includes Twitter and Gary Neville gives me shivers), good clubs do their business early. And this is what Everton did, for once staying away from all the transfers shenanigans.

Everton might not be headed for the top of the Prem but, with one of the ablest managers in the game, and with a settled team, they will cause a lot of trouble around. They have become an example to follow. Perhaps their neighbours would do well to learn from them.

THE TRANSFER REVIEW

STEVEN NAISMITH 

Whenever a player signs from the Scottish leagues, a huge warning sign accompanies them. This is due to the poor level of football up there. In terms of skills, technical and tactical, it compares unfavourably to League 1 in England. No kidding. I mean, Ally McCoist, Neil Lennon, Walter Smith and Alex McLeish (gasp!) all won titles in Scotland. How ridiculous is that! And to be honest I'd rather have my team managed by Di Canio, Karl Robinson (of MK Dons, great manager already) and others. It's partly due to these facts (and many other, but we don't have time) that Scottish football is seen as it is: a big joke.
So how does this apply to Steven Naismith? Well, scoring goals for fun in the Scottish Premier League is easy when you have two feet and a head. Just ask Michael Mols. But Naismith wan't even prolific, despite playing in a free role at Rangers. However, you can also see why this has the potential to be a great signing for Everton. Versatile, strong, selfless: Naismith represents everything Moyes wants in his players. And, as a free transfer, he is a typical low-risk/high-reward gamble by Moyes. Sounds like a typical sneaky good Everton signing to me. Especially considering Moyes's success with Jelavic. Nikica and Steven might be able to rekindle their Rangers partnership in Merseyside. Clever.

No comment.

Best case scenario: A cross between Tim Cahill and Leon Osman
Worst case scenario: James McFadden and Bilyaletdinov's lovechild

KEVIN MIRALLAS

Honestly, I'm really not sure about this one, especially for a reported £6.5m. I remember Mirallas from his times at Lille and Saint Etienne in France. Moody, arrogant, inefficient, Kevin didn't exactly set the world alight. I bet you'd agree that 13 goals in 129 Ligue 1 games doesn't really strike you as prolific. We're entering Emile Heskey-at-Aston-Villa territory here. And whilst his scoring instincts suddenly popped up at Olympiakos with 34 goals in 52 league games, I'm also guessing that was down to facing goalkeepers like Charles Itandje and teams like Atromitos, Panionios and Athenatiopoulos (one of them is made up. Which one?).
Of course, there's also a lot to like. Still only 24, Mirallas had probably settled down and worked harder at Olympiakos, ergo his success there. He can also play on the wings, behind the striker, or he can lead the line and play on the shoulders of the defenders. A slightly more risky move than Naismith, but in Moyes I trust (despite not being an Everton fan), and his performance in the Capital One Cup raised expectations. I still have to see it to believe it.

Kevin Mirallas when he played in Ligue 1.

Best case scenario: A more mobile Tim Cahill.
Worst case scenario: A smaller inefficient version of James Beattie.

STEVEN PIENAAR

Haaaa Tottenham. The classic player-waster club, especially under Redknapp. Kranjcar, Bassong and Pienaar were symbols of 'Arry's bulimic approach to signing players (nothing to do with signing-on fees 'Arry?). It's all good and dandy signing good players to make the dquad more competitive, but then there must be some sort of rotation to keep them interested. Unfortunately for Kranjcar and Pienaar, this meant being second fodder to Modric and Bale respectively. Nothing disrespectful about that, but still a waste of good talent.
So Moyes sniffed an opportunity. And what did he get? A player who loves the club, knows the system, knows the players, understands everything and is grateful for a second chance at a club he should never have left in the first place. Isn't that precisely what strikes you as a sign of a top quality signing? Oh yeah, and the guy can play too. With a free role down Everton's left hand-side, Steven will play liberated. And, with Leighton Baines, Pienarr will help form the Premier League's most fearsome left side. A great signing.

Pienaar: will either be better than Pienaar or as good as Pienaar.

Best case scenario: an even better version of first time round Steven Pienaar
Worst case scenario: Steven Pienaar

BRYAN OVIEDO

Who? Fear not, my Everton friend. A 22 year-old Costa Rican left-sided player (that means either left-back or left-midfielder), Bryan has Champions' League experience with FC Copenhagen and has just been named 2012 Danish Cup Player of the Year. At £5m he might be a bit of a gamble, but that's not been value for a young player with legitimate upside and versatility. What's more, he should be able to settle in nice and slowly by backing up Pienaar and Baines. Probably a transfer for the post-Baines future (sorry Everton fans, it will happen!)

Best case scenario: can I say Paulo Wanchope? OK that's too far-fetched. Probably a young Middlesbrough Stewart Downing (when he played both LB and LM)
Worst case scenario: Lars Jacobsen

MATTHEW KENNEDY

Once again Moyes has tapped into the Scottish market, this time snapping up a 17 year-old winger with Premier League experience (14 games). Don't expect fireworks but a few seasons on loan, or simply developing in the youth and reserve teams, will help the young man. Another clever low risk/high-reward signing from the Everton manager. Too early to tell what he'll become.


WALLY'S ADVICE
Keep doing what you're doing
Honestly, what better advice am I going to give to one of the Premier League's best managers?

Maybe give youth a chance
One of the criticisms which perhaps can be aimed at Moyes is that, despite a great youth system, he has been quite slow sometimes to give a chance to his young players. But, with Ross Barkley, Magaye Gueye, Seamus Coleman and Shane Duffy raring to go, it could be a good thing to test them this season.

Ross Barkley: tipped for big things.

THE LINE-UP

In our view

                                                             Howard

Hibbert                              Jagielka                               Distin                             Baines

                                          Neville                                Fellaini

Coleman                                              Osman                                                     Pienaar

                                                            Jelavic



How they probably will line up

                                                          Howard

Hibbert                            Jagielka                               Distin                                Baines

                                        Neville                                Osman

Naismith                                            Fellaini                                                        Pienaar

                                                          Jelavic


PREDICTIONS

Partly due to the lack of serious competition, and partly due to their stability, Everton will finish an impressive 5th, with maybe a decent cup run to go with it.